JULY 2026 – W.28
"The cartel La Nueva Familia Michoacana is forcing out the established Cartel de Los Tlacos. Government security officials were warned by locals of the impending problems in the states of Guerrero and Sinaloa in particular. Due to the extra needed security for the World Cup tournaments in other states, government security was withdrawn in Guerrero and Sinaloa.
Too little too late: with government security forces reentering the areas now that the World Cup events are over, the conflicts will likely continue and worsen. The key to the cartels’ existence is to dominate the areas and routes used to finance their criminal enterprises of trafficking drugs, guns, and people - and they have filled the temporary vacuum left by authorities."
Michael Clayton - Merrill Herzog LATAM Specialist
ACTION
Pre-arrange transportation, carry emergency contact information and tracking devices, and avoid drawing attention to valuables.
WHY IT MATTERS
High-profile visitors remain at risk from extortive crimes while traveling to and through key regions of Mexico.
Regionally, politically-savvy competing Mexican cartels are leveraging the semi-legitimacy and popular support of nongovernment protection groups to gain advantage in strategic trafficking routes.
The Road to Acapulco
PACIFIC ISLANDS & NE / EAST ASIA
Digital Identity / Privacy
Travel Disruption
Operational & Logistics
Regulatory
Health Security
Border & Entry Risk
Civil Unrest / Security
Regional Escalation
The Strength of Núi Ba Vi
After terrorizing Guam, Rota, and Saipan, Super Typhoon Bavi’s 1000-kilometer wide center is approaching Taiwan, Japan and southeastern China with 75-knot winds.
WHY IT MATTERS
Bavi is on track to be the largest typhoon to hit Taiwan in decades, with the potential to cause widespread flooding and damage.
ACTION
Avoid nonessential travel to impacted areas until damage assessments and recovery scope have been determined.
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MIDDLE EAST
Digital Identity / Privacy
Travel Disruption
Operational & Logistics
Regulatory
Health Security
Border & Entry Risk
Civil Unrest / Security
Regional Escalation
A Never Ending Story
Representatives of Iran, Israel and the US have all threatened increased violence as the three nations struggle for regional control.
WHY IT MATTERS
An unpredictable security situation will continue through at least the end of August as recent international agreements are voided, marking Kuwait and Bahrain as consistently dangerous fly zones.
ACTION
Plan travel routes around updated guidance, as country-level bulletins warn airlines to use caution in specific airspace.
SOUTH ASIA
Digital Identity / Privacy
Travel Disruption
Operational & Logistics
Regulatory
Health Security
Border & Entry Risk
Civil Unrest / Security
Regional Escalation
Dearth to Deluge
After a late monsoon season threatened potable water resources in Mumbai, the arrival of torrential rains has been marked by landslides, property damage, and flooding.
WHY IT MATTERS
Hundreds of roads across the country are currently blocked by debris and flooding as rain is forecast to continue impacting the northeastern portion of the country.
ACTION
Monitor district rain reports and traffic and navigation apps with public/crowd inputs to determine travel routes.
OCEANIA
Digital Identity / Privacy
Travel Disruption
Operational & Logistics
Regulatory
Health Security
Border & Entry Risk
Civil Unrest / Security
Regional Escalation
Null and Post
Australia’s crackdown on social media platforms is ranging from age verification efforts, and their consequent privacy impacts for all users, to criminal charges for offensive posts.
WHY IT MATTERS
As multiple nations navigate changing social media environments, new laws, deportations, and detentions may affect international travelers.
ACTION
Privatize social media, especially non-curated accounts, while traveling.
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