SEPTEMBER 2026 – W.36
“It’s a trend, with partnerships like this one, to have an initial increase in certain types of violence. The objectives of collaborative task forces get wind of a new threat to their enterprises and react to them, or fragmented organizations engage in internal power struggles. New smaller groups pop up and anyone pushed out of their normal operating area looks to recoup losses by diversifying with new revenue streams.”
- Michael Anthony, MH Data Analyst
ACTIONS
Consider amplified risks in port cities, remote beaches, and government buildings during joint US and Costa Rican operations.
WHY IT MATTERS
An increase in protests by citizens opposing the partnership is likely, as is a heightened potential for posturing by cartel leadership.
Costa Rica, part of the US-established counter-cartel coalition “Shield of the Americas,” welcomed anti-cartel activities in Costa Rica including by US Ground Forces.
An Aegis J-Curve
Southeast Asia
Digital Identity / Privacy
Travel Disruption
Operational & Logistics
Regulatory
Health Security
Border & Entry Risk
Civil Unrest / Security
Regional Escalation
Earth, Wind and Fire
Toxic haze from seasonal wildfires burning peatlands in Indonesia are exacerbated by current ‘super El Niño’ conditions and widespread droughts.
WHY IT MATTERS
The fires have had a substantial impact on public health with high-pollution haze and are extremely difficult to extinguish as they burn underground.
ACTION
Shift travel to Indonesia until peat wildfires are extinguished if you have health conditions which may be exacerbated by poor air quality.
CHINA
Digital Identity / Privacy
Travel Disruption
Operational & Logistics
Regulatory
Health Security
Border & Entry Risk
Civil Unrest / Security
Regional Escalation
Third Time’s the Harm
Typhoon Saudel has hit China’s Zhangpu coast three times, twice with maximum sustained winds above 70 mph.
WHY IT MATTERS
Berthing delays have increased this month in Shanghai ports, and sequential typhoon strikes have caused severe vessel bunching and tens of thousands of evacuations. The impacted region includes a large petrochemical supply chain corridor.
ACTION
Review business continuity plans associated with shipping lanes and potential downstream petrochemical supply impacts.
NORTH AMERICA
Digital Identity / Privacy
Travel Disruption
Operational & Logistics
Regulatory
Health Security
Border & Entry Risk
Civil Unrest / Security
Regional Escalation
Draining Toronto
Severe thunderstorms have struck Ontario’s capital seat with large hail, heavy rain, and damaging winds.
WHY IT MATTERS
The City of Toronto is recovering from power outages, storm debris, blocked storm drains and road closures due to flooding.
ACTION
Check Ontario 511 and the Toronto Transit Commission website for updates to plan travel around closures and outages.
GLOBAL
Digital Identity / Privacy
Travel Disruption
Operational & Logistics
Regulatory
Health Security
Border & Entry Risk
Civil Unrest / Security
Regional Escalation
A State of Mind
The US State Department updated nine travel advisories on 4 September, including Bhutan, China, Hong Kong, Macau, Morocco, Nepal, Peru, Sao Tome and Principe, and Tajikistan.
WHY IT MATTERS
The State Department’s information details the status of policy changes, natural disasters, health risks, border conditions, and specific local areas of risk every 6-12 months.
ACTION
Review international travel advisories from the US and other sources as a basic planning tool for advance travel planning and emergency communications from embassies.
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